Ivorian cocoa: Between guaranteed prices, cautious markets and peasant anxiety, the impossible equation of a global giant.

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1. Ivorian cocoa: historical pillar and economic dependence

Côte d’Ivoire has been the world's leading cocoa power for decades, with annual production hovering around 2.0 to 100%. 2.3 million tonnes (40% of world supply), followed by Ghana which represents around 15% at 20% of overall production. Cocoa constitutes a major economic pillar: around 20% of Ivorian GDP, around 40% of export revenues and the livelihood of nearly 2 million family producers depend on this sector. This structural role explains why any fluctuation in prices or market trends occurs. The global economy resonates deeply in the economy and society. Ivorian.

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2. The pricing mechanism and the fear of farmers

In Ivorian agricultural policy, cocoa is not a freely traded product. : the State, via the Coffee-Cocoa Council (CCC), sets each year a guaranteed farm gate price for farmers before the start of the harvest. For the 2025-2026 campaign, this award was made. established at 2,800 CFA francs per kilogram (i.e. approximately €4.27). This decision aimed to protect the income of producers in the face of the historical surge in world prices dating back to 2023-2024.

However, today, this guaranteed price policy has become a trap: world prices have fallen, leading to an unfavorable gap between the guaranteed price and the prices actually paid by international markets. Result: farmers fear having to resell their beans at a higher price. levels well below the cost of production, while at the risk of being blocked by unsold stocks at low prices. on the farm or in warehouses. This growing fear is exacerbated by uncertainty about the outlook for the future. short term and by the impression of a lack of listening to market signals.

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3. The turnaround in global markets: surplus, weak demand and falling prices

After flirting With record highs in 2023-2024, global cocoa prices have collapsed, falling to around 100%. levels among the lowest in the last three years. This drop of more than 70% comes from a combination of structural factors: improved yields in Ivory Coast and Ghana, high global stocks among traders, and above all a more sluggish demand for chocolate than expected, with some consumers turning to alternatives to chocolate or reducing their consumption. consumption.

This dynamic has led to; inventories on local markets (ICE) rising significantly, reflecting a lasting imbalance between supply and demand.

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4. Poor sales and accumulation of stocks: the concern of operators

The most dramatic consequence of this price slide is that international buyers refuse to acquire cocoa at a higher price. prices guaranteed by Abidjan or Accra much higher than actual market prices. Contracts current terms value cocoa at a higher price; around $3,100 per tonne, well below the implicit level of prices guaranteed to farmers (often around $5,000/t based on prices set last year). This bottleneck has already disappeared. trained the accumulation of some 200,000 tonnes of unsold cocoa in Ivory Coast, stocks which are increasing in warehouses and ports due to a lack of foreign buyers ready to sell. pay the asking price.

This phenomenon is not isolated; : In Ghana, laid off buyers are deeply in debt and unable to finance purchases from farmers, further reinforcing the hoarding effect and poor sales.

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5. Why are international markets shunning Ivorian and Ghanaian cocoa?

The central question remains: why does Ivorian (and Ghanaian) cocoa remain unsold despite the crisis? its quality recognized? The answers depend on several converging factors:

• Price gap: Prices set by states are currently too high compared to the levels that global buyers consider viable, especially in the face of high prices. the weakness of final demand (chocolate).

• Anticipated stock policy: governments sell part of their harvests one year to the next. advance, which increases rigidity. in the event of a market downturn.

• Sectoral preferences: some manufacturers delay their purchases while waiting for more attractive prices, and prefer to use existing stocks or alternative beans in the event of a surplus.

• Financial constraints: in Ghana, the lack of liquidity of approved buyers limits their ability to sell. à acquire new volumes, aggravating the sales problem.

These elements, combined, explain why significant volumes remain today without a buyer – not for lack of quality; or quantity, but at the same time cause of price imbalances and market dynamics.

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6. Historical perspective and projection up to now 2030

Over the last decade, the Ivorian cocoa sector has experienced several cycles: relatively modest prices at the start of the 2010s, a sharp increase in 2023-2024 linked to anticipated production deficits, then a brutal correction to the decline since 2025. State policies of guaranteed prices have often protected prices. producers to short term, but have increased differences with international markets during economic downturns.

À By 2030, several scenarios are emerging. If governments adapt their policies towards greater flexibility prices and strengthen local value addition (transformation), Ivory Coast could stabilize its income even with volatile world prices. In the alternative scenario, where world prices remain low and rigidity policies continue. persist, the pressure on farmers and public finances risks intensifying. Projections from industry players suggest that without reform of sales and pricing mechanisms, export volumes could stagnate or even decline, further reducing revenues to a minimum. export in a context where sustainable agroforestry and local transformation are becoming essential levers for the future.

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Conclusion

In conclusion, the current cocoa crisis in Ivory Coast is less a production crisis than a marketing and market adjustment crisis. worldwide, where domestic intervention policies have clashed with the a reality globalized supply and sluggish demand. As long as price mechanisms do not better reflect market signals, Globally, the fear of farmers and the accumulation of stocks are likely to persist, requiring a profound transformation of the sector in the years to come. come.