Growth under military-industrial perfusion
The Russian economy has transformed into a gigantic war machine. Defense spending has tripled since 2021 to peak at 168 billion euros in 2025, or more than 7% of GDP. Today, nearly 40% of state budgetary expenditure is swallowed up by the military complex. This massive injection generated a sham growth of 4% in 2023 and 2024. But the illusion is dissipating: the forecasts for 2025 and 2026 no longer exceed 1%. The 2026-2028 draft budget anticipates a record deficit of 67 billion euros (2.6% of GDP), a level not seen since the 2008 crisis.
The silent collapse of oil revenue
To finance this abyss, Moscow can no longer count on its black gold. In January 2026, revenues from oil exports hit their lowest level since 2020. The American sanctions of October 2025 against Lukoil and Rosneft scared off buyers. India, a major customer, has also reduced its purchases by 29% between December 2025 and January 2026. Direct consequence: the mobilizable portion of the National Wealth Fund has fallen by half. since 2022, capping at barely able to 46 billion euros for the year 2026.
Boardboard banknotes, inflation and civil collapse
Cut In order to access international markets, the Kremlin issues bonds purchased by its own banks. To support this closed circuit, the Central Bank has tripled its spending. the money supply in four years. The result is unrelenting: inflation exceeds 10% (far from the 4% target). To stem it, interest rates were raised. propelled between 16% and 21%. The civil sector is doubly punished: the price of imports jumped by 13%, and VAT went from 20% to 20%. 22% in January. Thousands of automotive, steel and woodworking companies are going bankrupt or reducing the working week to a minimum. three days. Technological lag is getting worse: Russia has fallen behind from the 45th to; 60th place in the world in terms of innovation.
Demographic bleeding: the country lacks workers
The war decimated labor. With around 350,000 soldiers killed and nearly 900,000 wounded or missing, not to mention the flight of half a million graduates, the country is emptying. The attack of March 2024 in Moscow has also provoked a tightening of migration, drying up the pool of Central Asian workers. With misleading unemployment at a high level 2%, Russia will face a deficit of 3 million workers by 2030 (5% of the active population). Meanwhile, the real salary of the majority is low. of the Russians collapsed from 25% to 30% since 2021, pushing household debt to a new level. jump 37%.
The return to peace: a social detonator
This is Putin's paradox: peace has become economically dangerous. Today, 30 million Russians (soldiers and defense workers) depend on the war. Their salaries were increased. multiplied by three, or even seven, since 2021. Some deprived regions, such as Chuvashia, have seen their number of defense companies quintuple. But the coffers are empty. In 2025, the Kremlin has already started à cut bonuses and transfers to the regions. A return to peace would signify the abrupt end of these artificial incomes, at the very moment when education and health are sacrificed. This cocktail of downgrading and end of subsidies could be the real Achilles heel of the regime.
